Tropical Storm and Hurricane Noel Page
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 Very large and dangerous Post-Tropical Storm Noel forecast to move into the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
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The centre of post-tropical storm noel is forecast to track across western Nova Scotia, the Bay of Fundy and Western Pei Saturday night
  November 4, 2007 --  Post-Tropical Storm Noel Final Information Statement Issued By The Canadian Hurricane Centre Of Environment Canada At 6.00 Pm AST Sunday 04 November 2007

This will be the last bulletin issued on post-Tropical Storm Noel.

Post-tropical storm noel is now completely extratropical and as a result Canadian Hurricane Centre bulletins are no longer necessary.  Further information on the weather associated with this storm can be found in regular bulletins issued by the Quebec and Atlantic Storm Prediction Centres and the Newfoundland and Labrador Weather Office

Synoptic summary of the storm... Late on Saturday October 27 a persistent low pressure center about 200 km south southeast of Haiti became tropical depression sixteen.  By Sunday afternoon while still well south of Haiti the tropical depression became tropical storm noel.. The 14th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Over the following days noel tracked erratically through Haiti Cuba and the Bahamas... Never reaching much more than 90 km/h in sustained winds. However torrential rains of more than 500 mm in some Caribbean countries claimed more than 100 lives in flooding and mudslides. Once noel cleared the Bahamas it intensified quickly to a category one hurricane late Thursday November 1. Subsequently hurricane noel continued moving northeast with maximum sustained winds of near 140 km/h. Almost immediately after becoming a hurricane noel began transitioning to a post-tropical storm. During this transition it became a very large and powerful post-tropical storm. The Storm Centre reached the southwest coast of Nova Scotia in the early  morning hours of Sunday November 4 still carrying maximum sustained  winds of 140 km/h. By Sunday afternoon the storm was over Labrador and fully extratropical in nature.

Weather in eastern Canada... Gales moved into southwestern maritime waters near dawn Saturday November 3 while the Storm Centre was still 1100 km southwest of Nova Scotia. Strong winds and rain moved into southwestern Maritimes Saturday afternoon and pushed steadily northeastward through eastern Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Snow developed with the system in northwestern New Brunswick southeastern Quebec and Labrador.

Impacts... The worst hit province was Nova Scotia with widespread power outages.. Localized flooding.. Uprooted trees.. Road washouts.. And some infrastructure damage... Especially along the Atlantic Coast.

Summary Wind And Rain Data From New Brunswick Total Rainfall  Max. Wind Gust
  Amounts (Mm)  (Km/H)
Saint John   71.2 82
Point Lepreau   81.2 82
Grand Manan   59.0 82
St Stephen   72.4 63
Fredericton   56.7 83
Gagetown   66.0 72
Mechanic Settlement   67.0 85
Fundy Park   59.8 N/A
Moncton   72.2 96
Bouctouche   55.0 72
Kouchibouguac   86.1 N/A
Miramichi   68.0 67
Bas Caraquet   95.6 72
Miscou Island   59.6 87
Bathurst   89.8 69
Charlo   62.0 56
Edmunston   52.7 N/A
St Léonard   N/A 57
Meadowbrook 112.3

Summary Wind And Rain Data From Pei Total Rainfall Max. Wind Gust Amounts (Mm) (Km/H)
Charlottetown   28.2 96
Summerside   45.2 93
North Point   54.7  111
St Peter's   35.4   102
East Point   21.7   111
Harrington Harbour   27.9  106
Maple Plains  N/A  87

Summary Wind And Rain Data From The Magdalen Islands Total Rainfall Max. Wind Gust Amounts (Mm)  (Km/H)
Grindstone Island    26.6 115

Summary Wind And Rain Data From Nova Scotia ...Total Rainfall Max. Wind Gust Amounts (Mm) (Km/H)
Yarmouth    50.4 85
Brier Island    37.0 107
Baccaro Point    76.9 126
Western Head    73.8 104
Lunenburg     N/A 104
Shearwater    36.7 N/A
Mcnabs Island     N/A 135
Halifax Int'l'53.1 113
Kentville    70.5 81
Greenwood (Windy Hill)    51.7        (100)
Kejimkujik    71.6 N/A
Upper Stewiacke    34.5 104
Debert    35.5 102
Parrsboro    60.9 67
Nappan    53.2 91
Caribou Point *    18.7 122
Tracadie    57.8 106
Malay Falls    57.9 N/A
Beaver Island     N/A 137
Hart Island     N/A 124
Sydney    67.6 102
Ingonish Beach   112.3          94
Grand Etang     N/A 146
North Mountain              N/A                  96
St Paul Island              N/A                 128

Additionally An Unofficial Observation From Smelt Brook Just To The East Of Dingwall In Cape Breton Reported 130 Mm Of Rain.

*  Station Ceased Reporting At 6.00 A.M. Ast Sunday Morning.
Summary Wind Data From Newfoundland ...Max. Wind Gust (Km/H)
Burgeo 111
St. Lawrence 94
Winterland 104
Port Aux Basques 113
Sagona 135
St. John's 80
Bonavista 111
Gander 98
Deer Lake 95
Stephenville 95
Wreckhouse 180
Daniel's Harbour 109
Ferolle Point 104

Notable marine data from maritime and Newfoundland waters ... A peak wind of 66 knots or 122 km/h was reported at the West Scotian Slope buoy. The highest significant wave height of 13.9 metres was reported at the Georges Bank buoy. The Halifax Wave Rider buoy reported a significant wave height of 10.3 metres.

Summary storm data from affected regions in southeastern Quebec and Labrador will not be available until some time Monday.

END BOWYER

  Dominican Republic: Tropical Storm Noel OCHA Situation Report No. 1
Dominican Republic: Tropical Storm Noel OCHA Situation Report No. 2


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Tropical Depression 16 was intensifying into Tropical Storm Noel late in the morning of October 28, 2007

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(A Hurricane Watch is issued when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24-36 hours.)
1. Listen to a battery-operated radio or television for hurricane progress reports.
2. Check emergency supply kit.
3. Fuel car.
4. Bring in outdoor objects such as lawn furniture, toys, and garden tools and anchor objects that cannot be brought inside.
5. Secure buildings by closing and boarding up windows. Remove outside antennas.
6. Turn refrigerator and freezer to coldest settings. Open only when absolutely necessary and close quickly.
7. Store drinking water in clean bathtubs, jugs, bottles, and cooking utensils.
8. Store valuables and personal papers in a waterproof container on the highest level of your home. 9. Review evacuation plan.
10. Moor boat securely or move it to a designated safe place. Use rope or chain to secure boat to trailer. Use tiedowns to anchor trailer to the ground or house.
Source: floridadisaster.org/      Florida's Division of Emergency Management
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History of Storms Named Tropical Storm -- In 1995 and 2001 category 1 Hurricane's named Noel formed that did not present any danger to land.  1995 Tracking information -- 2001 Tracking information -- 1995 IR Satellite   2001 Tropical Cyclone Report - Hurricane Noel


Year 2007 Hurricane Noel Diary

November 3, 2007 --

Post-Tropical Storm Noel Information Statement Issued By The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada At 3.00 PM AST Sunday 04 November 2007.

 ... Post-Tropical Noel moving into Labrador..

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 2.00 PM AST... Post-tropical storm noel was located near latitude 51.2 n and longitude 62.2 w, about 62 nautical miles or 116 km north of Natashquan Québec. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h, and central pressure at 966 mb. Noel is moving north-northeast at 41 knots... 76 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          AST                    MB  KTS  KMH
NOV 04  2.00 PM  51.2N  62.2W   966   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04  8.00 PM  55.0N  58.9W   966   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05  2.00 AM  57.6N  56.8W   968   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05  8.00 AM  59.9N  54.9W   969   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05  2.00 PM  62.4N  53.1W   978   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary all rainfall warning shave ended. Wind warnings are being systematically ended as post-tropical noel moves northeastward and this trend will continue. Snowfall warnings in Quebec have ended but heavy snowfall and blowing snow warnings remain in Labrador.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary storm and gale warnings remain in maritime and Newfoundland waters in the wake of post-tropical noel but these should end tonight. Gale warnings will remain in Labrador waters until the storm system passes well to the north late Monday

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis an elongated area of low pressure, possibly with two centers, is evident in the pressure field. It is clear that this system is now fully extratropical.  Gusts in the 60s in the gulf waters and gusts in the 40s in waters south of Nova Scotia convince us to maintain at least 60 kts sustained winds with the system at 18z.

B. Prognostic we mostly follow the gem package. Pressure continues being lower than initialized by the model.

C. Public weather nothing additional.

D. Marine weather hurricane force gusts in some maritime waters still linger but these should be gone shortly.

November 3, 2007 -- Post-Tropical Storm Noel Information Statement Issued By The Canadian Hurricane Centre Of Environment Canada At 9.00 Pm ADT Saturday 03 November 2007.
Weather Conditions Deteriorating As Noel Approaches The Maritimes. Preparation Efforts Should Now Be Completed...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 PM ADT... Post-tropical storm noel was located near latitude 40.7 n and longitude 68.5 w, about 220 nautical miles or 400 km south southwest of Yarmouth Nova Scotia. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 75 knots...139 km/h...and central pressure at 968 mb. Noel is moving north-northeast at 31 knots...57 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date     Time     Lat    Lon   Mslp  Max Wind
          ADT                    Mb  Kts  Kmh
Nov 03  9.00 Pm  40.7n  68.5w   968   75  139 Post-Tropical
Nov 04  2.00 Am  43.5n  66.8w   965   75  139 Post-Tropical
Nov 04  8.00 Am  47.1n  64.8w   962   70  130 Post-Tropical
Nov 04  2.00 Pm  50.7n  62.5w   965   60  111 Post-Tropical
Nov 04  8.00 Pm  53.9n  60.1w   966   60  111 Post-Tropical
Nov 05  2.00 Am  56.9n  58.3w   968   55  102 Post-Tropical
Nov 05  8.00 Am  59.2n  57.2w   969   55  102 Post-Tropical
Nov 05  2.00 Pm  62.0n  56.3w   972   50   93 Post-Tropical
Nov 05  8.00 Pm  64.7n  55.8w   978   50   93 Post-Tropical

The current track has been moved back toward the east of the previous one, based on a farther-east storm position at forecast time. This track brings the storm center just west of Nova Scotia, into the Bay of Fundy then across southeastern New Brunswick and eventually through central Labrador.

Although noel is a post-tropical storm we expect it to be accompanied by hurricane force winds. The public is advised not to focus on the actual track of the Storm Centre since the high winds and heavy rains will extend very far from the track line itself.

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
The number of warnings for this storm are too numerous to list but  are summarized here with details being available in bulletins issued  by the Quebec and Atlantic Storm Prediction Centres and the Newfoundland and Labrador weather office, wind and/or rain warnings are in effect for Québec, New Brunswick,  Pei, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Heavy snowfall warnings are in effect for Churchill Falls and northern Labrador.

The strongest winds are expected to be in the Newfoundland Wreckhouse area and in Les Suetes in the Cape Breton Highlands...100 km/h gusting to 180/160 respectively. 140 km/h wind gusts are forecast
over parts of nova scotia.

Heaviest rainfall forecast is 100 mm in portions of New Brunswick.

Significant wave heights of 10 m have been observed west of the storm and are likely 12 m east of it. We are warning that these energetic waves will create dangerous pounding surf conditions along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia tonight and Sunday morning and we  advise people to exercise extreme caution near these shores. Media reports have alerted us to a high level of interest in these waves by the public and we advise against anyone testing these waters or even going near the shore.

Storm surge is unlikely to be a major problem because tides are running lower than normal. We do not expect total water levels to be much above high astronomical tide.

Damage/impacts...
Where wind gusts to and above hurricane force (120 km/h) are forecast
Expect tree limbs and branches to break which will likely lead to downed power lines and power interruptions. Some trees will likely be uprooted. These winds will cause damage to roofing and cladding material on some homes. Some signage could also suffer damage with winds gusting this high. Also, with 11-metre waves expected along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia... And upwards of 8-metres in the northeast Gulf of St. Lawrence on Sunday. Coastal erosion of some beaches is likely with possible damage to wharves and docks. Rainfall may cause localized flooding in prone areas, especially where leaf litter clogs storm drains.

Embedded thundershowers are being reported over parts of Nova Scotia.  Winds could be particularly gusty in these thundershowers.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern maritime waters and most Gulf of St Lawrence waters. Storm and gale warnings are in effect for remaining waters of the Maritimes, Newfoundland, and for southern Labrador as well as for some St.
Lawrence River waters.

5. Technical discussion
a. Analysis
Buoy reports are confirming winds near 70 knots on the western side of the storm along with 11 m sig wave heights. The storm center has passed east of buoy 44008 to the southeast of Cape Cod.

Goes imagery provide a good center fix on the position and clearly shows the energetic nature of the storm with convection still active near storm core.

B. Prognostic
Initial motion is based on current extrapolation and model forecasts.
The track has been bumped back toward the east during the first part of the forecast period, similar to the track issued last night.

C. Public weather details above.

D. Marine weather
Traditional wind radii table is left out given that the wind distribution around the storm is much different than a purely tropical system.

The trapped-fetch wave model continues suggesting that wam and ww3 may be underdoing the waves with this storm... With both of those models showing 11-12m. With 10m appearing at b44008 the max waves should be well east of this so 13-15m is not out of the question.
Given the tropical history of this storm, the Canadian Hurricane Centre will continue messaging throughout the weekend


This is the last advisory by the NHC
November 2, 2007 -- Noel Becoming A Strong Extratropical Cyclone... 

A gale warning remains in effect for Bermuda.  

Interests along the U. S. East coast from North Carolina northward should consult statements and warnings issued by their local NWS forecast office. 

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center of Environment Canada.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Noel was located near latitude 31.4 north - longitude 72.4 west or about 450 miles west of bermuda and about 320 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Noel is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and it is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts.  Noel is transitioning to a strong extratropical cyclone.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.  The cyclone is expected to increase in size during the next 24 hours.  The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data was (980 mb) 28.94 inches.  Noel is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals to 6 inches across eastern New England.

November 3, 2007 -- Noel Beginning To Lose Organization As A Tropical Cyclone...  

A gale warning remains in effect for Bermuda.  

Interests along the U. S. East coast from North Carolina northward should consult statements and warnings issued by their local NWS forecast office.  Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center of Environment Canada.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 AM EDT the center of hurricane noel was located near latitude 29.2 north...longitude 73.8 west or about 575 miles west-southwest of Bermuda and about 425 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Noel is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph.  A turn back to the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts.  Noel is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Noel is expected to lose tropical characteristics later today...but maintain its strength as an extratropical cyclone over the next two to three days.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.  The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data was (981 mb) 28.97 inches.  Noel is expected to produce rainfall amounts of up to one inch across the outer banks of North Carolina and 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals to 6 inches across eastern New England.  .

Novemeber 2, 2007 -- Noel Moving North-Northeastward Between The Southeastern United States And Bermuda...Growing In Size... 

A gale warning remains in effect for Bermuda.  Interests along the U. S. East Coast from North Carolina northward should consult statements and warnings issued by their local NWS forecast office.  Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center of Environment Canada.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 AM EDT the center of Hurricane Noel was located near latitude 28.4 north - longitude 75.2 west or about 675 miles west-southwest of Bermuda and about 470 miles south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.  Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts.  Noel is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but Noel is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.    Aircraft, satellite, and surface observations indicate that Noel has grown in size during the night.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles, mainly to the east of the center.  Noel is forecast to continue to grow in size as an extratropical cyclone.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (981 mb) 28.97 inches.  Noel is expected to produce rainfall amounts of up to one inch across the outer banks of North Carolina and 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals to 6 inches across eastern New England

November 1, 2007 -- Hurricane Noel Expected To Become A Large And Powerful Extratropical Storm Over The Open Atlantic On Friday...  

At 11 PM EDT all watches and warnings for the Bahamas have been discontinued.  A gale warning remains in effect for Bermuda.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Noel was located near latitude 27.3 north - longitude 76.1 west or about 180 miles north-northeast of Nassau and about 760 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.  Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph...32 km/hr... And this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track, Noel will continue to move away from the Bahamas.   Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts.  Noel is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but noel is expected to lose tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours.  Thereafter...noel should then strengthen and increase in size as an extratropical cyclone.  Interests along the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward should consult statements issued by their local NWS forecast office. Interests along the Canadian Maritimes should consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada.   Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, mainly to the north and east of the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles.  Estimated minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane was (981 mb) 28.97 inches.  Noel is expected to produce rainfall amounts of up to one inch across the outer banks of North Carolina and 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals to 6 inches across eastern New England.

November 1, 2007 -- Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Finds Hurricane Noel As It Moves Away From The Bahamas

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. The watch and warning for the Bahamas will likely be discontinued tonight.  A gale warning remains in effect for Bermuda.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office. 

At 800 PM EDT the center of recently-upgraded hurricane noel was located near latitude 26.5 north...longitude 76.5 west or about 115 miles north-northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas and about 810 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.  Noel has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph away from the Bahamas. An additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Noel is now a category one hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. However, it is expected to lose tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours.  Noel should then strengthen and increase in size as an extratropical cyclone.  Interests along the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward should consult statements issued by their local NWS forecast office.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and these winds are limited to the north and east of the center.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.  Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum central pressure has dropped to (981 mb) 28.97 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Bahamas, with possible maximum amounts of 18 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over eastern Cuba, where these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Rainfall amounts of an inch or so are possible across the outer banks of North Carolina.

November 1, 2007 -- Noel Accelerating Through The Bahamas... 

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A gale warning remains in effect for Bermuda.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 25.5 north - longitude 77.1 west or about 40 miles north-northeast of Nassau and about 205 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach Florida.  Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph.  An increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.  Noel is expected to lose tropical characteristics over the next 24 hours or so...but then strengthen and increase in size as an extratropical cyclone.  Interests along the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward should consult statements issued by their local NWS forecast office.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (993 mb) 29.32 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Bahamas, with possible maximum amounts of 18 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over eastern Cuba, where these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Rainfall amounts of an inch or so are possible across the outer banks of North Carolina.  

November 1, 2007 -- Noel Passing Over Nassau As It Accelerates North-Northeastward...  

At 2 PM EDT the tropical storm warning along the southeast Florida coast has been discontinued.  A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  The government of Bermuda has issued a gale warning for Bermuda.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 25.0 north - longitude 77.4 west or near Nassau in the Bahamas.  Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph and a further increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.   Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible later today.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.  The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft was (993 mb) 29.32 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Bahamas, with possible maximum amounts of 18 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, where these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Additional rainfall amounts of less than 1 inch are expected in southeastern Florida.  

November 1, 2007 -- Noel Turns To The North-Northeast

At 11 AM EDT the tropical storm watch north of Deerfield Beach has been discontinued.  A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the southeastern Florida coast from north of ocean reef to Deerfield Beach. This warning will likely be discontinued this afternoon.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 24.5 north -  longitude 77.8 west or about 45 miles southwest of Nassau and about 175 miles east-southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph and an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of noel will be moving through the northwestern Bahamas today and slowly increasing its distance from the Florida coast.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible later today.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.  The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force reconnaissance aircraft was (995 mb) 29.38 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Bahamas, with possible maximum amounts of 18 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, where these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Additional rainfall amounts of less than 1 inch are expected in southeastern Florida.  

November 1, 2007 -- Noel Moving Slowly Northward

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the southeastern Florida coast from north of ocean reef to Deerfield Beach. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 23.8 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 110 miles of Nassau and about 175 miles southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel is moving erratically toward the north near 6 mph.  A slow northward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the northeast expected tonight.  This motion should bring the center of Noel through the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 130 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (992 mb) 29.29 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Rains in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over portions of south Florida.  

November 1, 2007 --
Noel Continuing Slowly Northward...

Tropical Storm Warning For Southeastern Coast Of Florida... 

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  

At 5 AM AST the government of Cuba has canceled the tropical storm warning for Cuba.   At 5 AM EDT a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southeastern Florida coast from Ocean Reef to Deerfield Beach. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 23.7 north - longitude 78.5 west or about 115 miles southwest of Nassau and about 180 miles southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel is moving erratically toward the north near 6 mph...9 km/hr.  A slow northward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the northeast expected tonight.  This motion should bring the center of Noel through the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 130 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (992 mb) 29.29 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Rains in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over portions of south Florida.  

November 1, 2007 -- Center Of Noel Approaching Andros Island In The Northwestern Bahamas...  

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 23.5 north - longitude 78.5 west or about 125 miles south-southwest of Nassau and about 195 miles southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel is moving toward the north near 5 mph and this slow motion is expected to continue today.  A gradual turn to the northeast is expected thereafter.  Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km mainly to the north and east of the center.  The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is (993 mb) 29.32 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Rains in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over portions of south Florida.

October 31, 2007 --  Noel Moving Away From Cuba...Weather Should Begin To Worsen In The Central And Northwestern Bahamas... 

At 11 PM EDT the government of the Bahamas has issued a hurricane watch for the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 11 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 23.2 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 140 miles south-southwest of Nassau and about 210 miles south-southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel is moving toward the north near 3 mph and this slow motion is expected to continue on Thursday. A gradual turn to the northeast is expected thereafter.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  An Air Force plane is currently sampling the winds associated with noel. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, mainly to the north and east of the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance data is (996 mb) 29.41 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Rains in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over portions of south Florida.

October 31, 2007 -- Noel A Little Stronger...Moving Away From The North Coast Of Cuba...  

A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.9 north - longitude 78.5 west or about 160 miles south-southwest of Nassau and about 230 miles south-southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel has been drifting northward for the last several hours and a general slow northward motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  Data from the NOAA reconnaissance plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, mainly to the north and east of the center.  The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance plane was (996 mb) 29.41 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Rains in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over portions of south Florida.

October 31, 2007 -- Noel Lingering Along The Cuban Coast...

Tropical Storm Watch Issued For The Southeast Florida Coast... 

At 5PM EDT a tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Ocean Reef to Jupiter Inlet Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 22.6 north - longitude 78.8 west or about 190 miles south-southwest of Nassau and about 240 miles south-southeast of Miami Florida.  Noel has been stationary for the last several hours...but a generally northward motion is expected over the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (996 mb) 29.41 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Rains in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over portions of south Florida.  

October 31, 2007 -- Noel Meandering Near The North Coast Of Cuba... 

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las tunas, Granma, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  

Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel. As noel's wind field approaches southeast Florida, the existing wind advisory and gale warning may be replaced by a tropical storm warning. In either case...winds near gale/tropical storm force are likely to continue along the coast during the next 24 hours.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 78.8 west or about 190 miles south-southwest of Nassau.  This position is just off the north coast of Cuba near Cayo Santa Maria.   Noel drifted westward during the past few hours...but is currently nearly stationary.  A turn to the north is expected later today.    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles  from the center.  The latest minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft was (996 mb) 29.41 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over Hispaniola.  These rains, especially in Hispaniola and Cuba, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
October 31, 2007 -- Noel strengthens after moving offshore of the north coast of Cuba...
At 11 AM EDT the government of Cuba has discontinued the tropical storm warning for Sancti Spiritus and Guantanamo. 
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin,
and Santiago de Cuba.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  
Interests in southern Florida should closely monitor the progress of Noel. 
As Noel moves northward today, its wind field will approach southeast Florida, and the existing wind advisory and gale 
warning may need to be replaced by a tropical storm warning.  In either case, winds near gale/tropical storm strength are
likely to continue along the coast during the next 24 hours.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  
At 1100 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 22.7 north...longitude 78.5 west or about
175 miles south-southwest of Nassau.  Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph.  A turn to the north is
expected later today.  Maximum sustained winds have increased and now are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. 
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to
115 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (994 mb) 29.35 inches.  
Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. 
Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over Hispaniola. 
These rains...especially in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


October 31, 2007 --
Center Of Noel About To Emerge Off The North Coast Of Cuba... 

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  Interests in southern Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Noel.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 22.3 north - longitude 78.2 west or about 65 miles north-northwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 195 miles south-southwest of Nassau.  Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph.  A turn toward the north is expected later today.  The center of noel is expected to emerge off the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours...and reach the northwestern Bahamas tonight.    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours after the center emerges over water.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles to the north and east of the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1000 mb) 29.53 inches.    Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over Hispaniola, bringing total accumulations to 20 to 30 inches.  Total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches... With isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola and Cuba, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 31, 2007 -- Noel now moving north-northwestward...approaching the northern coast of Cuba... 

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. 

At 500 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 22.1 north - longitude 78.2 west or about 50 miles north-northwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 205 miles south-southwest of Nassau.  Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph...11 km/hr.  A gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion should bring the center of noel off the northern coast of Cuba today and near the northwestern Bahamas tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours after the center emerges over water.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.  Guantanamo bay Cuba recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1000 mb) 29.53 inches.  Cayo Coco Cuba recently reported a pressure of (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over Hispaniola, bringing total accumulations to 20 to 30 inches.  Total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola and Cuba, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 31, 2007 -- Noel moving slowly northwestward...heavy rains continue over Cuba and Hispaniola...  

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  

Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel.  

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 AM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located by radar and surface observations near latitude 21.7 north - longitude 78.2 west or about 30 miles northwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 235 miles south-southwest of Nassau.  Noel has been moving erratically toward the northwest near 5 mph.  A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected over the next 24 hours.  On this track...noel is expected to emerge off of the north coast of Cuba today.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is expected when the center moves over water.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.  Guantanamo bay Cuba recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over Hispaniola, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, Are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

October 30, 2007 -- Noel still dumping heavy rains over cuba and hispaniola...  

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 21.4 north - longitude 78.1 west or very near Camaguey Cuba and about 255 miles...405 km ...south of Nassau.  Noel has been moving erratically over the past few hours but is moving generally toward the northwest near 5 mph.  A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected over the next 24 hours.  On this track Noel is expected to emerge off of the north coast of Cuba during the day on Wednesday.    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is expected when the center moves over water.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1002 mb) 29.59 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over Hispaniola, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 30, 2007 -- Noel Dumping Heavy Rains Over Cuba And Hispaniola... 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of southeastern Florida by early Wednesday.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. 

At 800 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located inland near latitude 21.1 north...longitude 78.1 west or about 25 miles south-southwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 275 miles south of Nassau in the Bahamas.  Noel has been drifting toward the west-northwest near 4 mph.  A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of Noel is expected to remain over Cuba overnight...but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba on Wednesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles mainly to the northeast from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola... Are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 30, 2007 -- Noel Still Centered Inland Over Cuba... 

At 500 PM EDT the government of Cuba has extended the tropical storm warning for Cuba westward and southward.  A tropical storm warning is now in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego De Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma... Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel. A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of southeastern Florida tonight or tomorrow.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 21.0 north - longitude 78.0 west or about 30 miles south-southwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 280 miles south of Nassau.  Noel is moving toward the west near 8 mph.  A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours.  On this track...the center of noel is expected to remain over Cuba today and tonight...but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles mainly to the northeast from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 30, 2007 --
Weaker Tropical Storm Noel Moving Westward Across Cuba

Heavy Rains Continue Over Hispaniola...And Portions Of The Bahamas And Cuba... 

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel. A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of southeast Florida later today or tonight.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office. 

At 200 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 21.0 north - longitude 77.7 west or about 30 miles south-southeast of Camaguey Cuba and about 275 miles south of Nassau in the northwestern Bahamas.  Noel is moving toward the west near 8 mph.  A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of noel is expected to remain inland over Cuba today and tonight, but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba by tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly to the east from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1002 mb) 29.59 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains...particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

October 30, 2007 -- Noel Weakens A Little Over Cuba

Heavy Rains Continue Over Hispaniola, And Portions Of The Bahamas And Cuba... 

At 1100 AM EDT the government of the Bahamas has discontinued the hurricane watch for the northwestern Bahamas, but a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel. A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of southeast Florida later today or tonight.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 21.1 north...longitude 77.4 west or about 40 miles east-southeast of Camaguey Cuba and about 270 miles south of Nassau in the northwestern Bahamas.  Noel is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr.  A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of Noel is expected to remain inland over Cuba today and tonight, but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba by tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly to the east from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

October 30, 2007 -- Noel Moving Westward Over Eastern Cuba... 

At 8 AM EDT the government of the Bahamas has discontinued the tropical storm warning for the southeastern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of southeast Florida later today.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 AM EDT radar data from Holguin Cuba indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located inland over Cuba near latitude 21.0 north - longitude 76.8 west...or about 35 miles west-northwest of Holguin Cuba, and about 275 miles south of Nassau in the Bahamas.  Noel has been moving toward the west near 12 mph. However, Noel is expected to turn toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of Noel should emerge off the north coast of Cuba by tonight or tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 50 mph, higher gusts.  Some restrengthening is forecast once the center of noel moves back over water.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly to the north of the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1000 mb) 29.53 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over the all of the Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 30, 2007 -- Noel Hugging The North Coast Of Cuba... 

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  

At 5 AM EDT the government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for the northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas.  Interest in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  A tropical storm watch may be required for southeast Florida later today.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 500 AM EDT radar data from Holguin Cuba indicate that the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 21.3 north - longitude 76.0 west, very near the town of Gibara on the north coast of Cuba, and about 270 miles south-southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas.   Noel has been moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr. However, Noel should turn to the northwest with the same forward speed later today. On this track...the center of noel should continue to move very near and parallel to the north coast of Cuba for the next 12 hours or so.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles mainly to the north of the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (999 mb) 29.50 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba, and the central and southeastern Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible over the southeastern Bahamas.

October 30, 2007 -- Noel Moving Very Close Or Over The North Coast Of Cuba... 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas.    A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.  

At 2 AM EDT the tropical storm warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands has been discontinued.  Interest in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  A tropical storm watch may be required for southeast Florida later today.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 AM EDT surface observations and radar from Holguin Cuba indicate that the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 21.2 north - longitude 75.6 west, very near or over Punta Lucrecia on the north coast of Cuba and about 285 miles south-southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas.  Noel has been moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph during the past few hours. However, Noel is expected to turn to the northwest with the same forward speed later today.  On this track, the center of noel should continue to move parallel to the north of coast of Cuba today.  Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 55 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly to the north of the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure from Cuban surface observations is (999 mb) 29.50 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba, and the central and southeastern Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

October 29, 2007 -- Noel Producing Heavy Rain Over Portions Of The Southeastern Bahamas

Heavy Rains Continuing Over Hispaniola

Tropical Storm Watch May Be Required For Southeast Florida Early Tuesday... 

At 1100 PM EDT the government of Cuba has extended the tropical storm warning westward to include the province of Ciego de Avila.  A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands.  

At 1100 PM EDT the tropical storm warning for Haiti has been discontinued.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.  Interest in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  A tropical storm watch may be required for southeast Florida early Tuesday.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 21.2 north - longitude 75.0 west or about 305 miles south-southeast of Nassau.  Noel is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of noel should move between the central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba tonight and tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1000 mb) 29.53 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern Cuba, and the central and southeastern Bahamas.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Noel Near Eastern Cuba...

October 29, 2007 -- Tropical Storm Watch May Be Required For Southeast Florida Later Tonight.... 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for portions of central and southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Camaguey, las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands.  A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern peninsula of Haiti from the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Gonaives.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  A tropical storm watch may be required for southeast Florida later tonight.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 20.9 north...longitude 74.4 west or about 205 miles south-southeast of Great Exuma Island and about 340 miles south-southeast of Nassau.  Noel is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph.  A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.  On this track...the center of noel should move between the central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba tonight and tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba, and the central and southeastern Bahamas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. 

October 29, 2007 -- Noel Slightly Stronger

Heavy Rains Expected Across Hispaniola, Portions Of The Bahamas, And Eastern Cuba,  

At 500 PM EDT the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm warning for portions of central and southeastern Cuba in the provinces of damage and las Tunas.  A tropical storm warning also remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Guantanamo and Holguin. 

At 500 PM EDT the government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern Bahamas.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas...including the Turks and Caicos Islands.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern peninsula of Haiti from the northern border of the Haiti-Dominican Republic to Gonaives.  Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of noel.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. 

At 500 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 20.9 north - longitude 74.2 west or about 50 miles north of the eastern tip of Cuba and about 215 miles south-southeast of Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas.  Noel is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of Noel should move between the central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba tonight and tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1001 mb) 29.56 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba...and the central and southeastern Bahamas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 29, 2007 -- Noel Remains Disorganized...Centered Near The Eastern Tip Of Cuba

Heavy Rains Now Spreading Across The Southeastern Bahamas... 

At 200 PM EDT the tropical storm warning for Haiti south of Gonaives has been discontinued.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti Dominican republic border to Gonaives.  Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands.   A tropical storm warning remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Guantanamo and Holguin.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.  A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the  northwestern Bahamas later this afternoon or tonight.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 20.5 north - longitude 73.8 west or about 30 miles northeast of the eastern tip of Cuba.  An air force reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating noel.   Noel is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  On this track...the center of noel will be moving near or over the southeastern and central Bahamas or northeastern Cuba later today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible over southeastern Cuba. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches, are possible across the central and southeastern Bahamas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Center Of Disorganized Noel About To Emerge Off The North Coast Of Haiti  

October 29, 2007 -- New Warnings Issued For The Bahamas... 

At 1100 AM EDT the government of the Bahamas has upgraded the tropical storm watch for the central Bahamas to a tropical storm warning.  Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands.  A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  

At 1100 AM EDT the government of Cuba has discontinued the hurricane watch.  The tropical storm warning for portions of southeastern Cuba has been discontinued in the provinces of Granma and Santiago.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the provinces of Guantanamo and Holguin.  A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.  

At 1100 AM EDT the tropical storm watch for Jamaica has been discontinued.  A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was estimated near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 73.0 west or about 80 miles east-southeast of the eastern tip of cuba and about 300 miles southeast of the central Bahamas.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate noel this afternoon to more precisely locate the circulation center.   Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  On this track, Noel will be moving over the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight.    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 20 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba.  Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with maximum totals of 15 inches...are possible across the central and southeastern Bahamas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

October 29, 2007 -- Noel Becoming Less Organized But Continues To Produce Life-Threatening Rains Over Hispaniola... 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands.  A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the entire coast of Haiti, and is recommended for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward.  A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.  A tropical storm watch is in effect for the central Bahamas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica. This watch will likely be lowered later today.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was estimated near latitude 18.3 north - longitude 72.4 west or near port au prince Haiti.   Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph and this motion is expected to continue today, with a turn to the northwest expected within 24 hours.  The center of noel is becoming disrupted by the high terrain of Hispaniola, but is expected to move over or near the western coast of Haiti during the day today.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional weakening is expected later today as noel continues to interact with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, but restrengthening is possible if the center emerges over Atlantic waters.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly to the east of the center.  Strong winds along portions of the U.S. east coast from Florida into the Carolinas are not associated with noel.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches.  Total accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 20 inches, are possible over southeastern Cuba. Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico through Tuesday morning.  These rains, particularly in Hispaniola, are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 29, 2007 -- Very Heavy Rains Continue Over Hispaniola... 

A tropical storm warning is recommended for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward.  A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.  A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch is in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.  A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 200 AM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 17.3 north - longitude 72.3 west or about 90 miles south of Port au Prince Haiti.  Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph, and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.  On this track the center will move near or over southwestern Haiti later this morning.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Little additional increase in strength is expected while noel interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola.    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.  The latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance aircraft was (1004 mb) 29.65 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 28, 2007 -- Noel - A Major Flood Threat - Continues To Spread Very Heavy Rains Over Hispaniola...  

A tropical storm warning is recommended for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward.  A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.  A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch is in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago De Cuba, Guantanamo...and Holguin.  A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.  For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 1100 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 17.1 north - longitude 72.1 west or about 105 miles south of Port au Prince Haiti and about 295 miles southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.  Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph, and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.  On this track the center will move near or over southwestern Haiti early on Monday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is (996 mb) 29.41 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  

October 28, 2007 -- Noel Meandering...Producing Heavy Rains Over Hispaniola...  

A tropical storm warning is recommended for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward.  A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.  A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch is in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago De Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.  A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.  For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.  

At 800 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 16.7 north  longitude - 71.8 west or about 135 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about 310 miles southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.  Noel has been meandering...with little overall motion...over the past few hours.  A motion toward the north-northwest near 5 mph is expected over the next 24 hours.  On this track, the center of Noel will move near or over southwestern Haiti by early Monday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, mainly to the north from the center.  The estimated minimum central pressure is (996 mb) 29.41 inches.  Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.  Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  
October 28, 2007 -- Noel A Little Stronger As It Approaches Hispaniola...

A tropical storm warning is recommended for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward. 
At 500 PM EDT the tropical storm warning for Haiti has been extended northward to include the entire coast of Haiti.
At 500 PM EDT, the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.  A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT the center of tropical storm noel was located near latitude 16.8 north - longitude 71.9 west or about 125 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about 320 miles southeast of Guantanamo Cuba. Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph.  A continued motion toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.  On this track...the center of noel will move near or over southwestern Haiti tonight. Reports from an air force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, mainly to the north from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by the aircraft was 29.41 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

October 28, 2007 -- Noel Becomes 14th Named Storm Of The Atlantic Season...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti Dominican republic border to Port-au-Prince.  A tropical storm warning is also recommended for the southwestern Dominican Republic from Barahona westward. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 215 PM EDT the center of Tropical Storm Noel was relocated near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 71.8 west or about 150 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph.  A general northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours...taking the center of noel near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight. Reports from an air force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the north from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was (996 mb) 29.41 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning area. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica...with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 
 October 28, 2007 -- Reports From An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That The Depression Has Strengthened To A Tropical Storm With Maximum Winds Near 50 Mph.  A special advisory will be issued at approximately 200 PM EDT, and the special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time.

October 28, 2007 -- Depression On The Verge Of Becoming A Tropical Storm, significant rainfall and flooding potential for portions of the Caribbean.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to port-au-prince.  A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 1100 AM EDT the center of tropical depression sixteen was located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 72.5 west or about 220 miles southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican republic and about 145 miles south of Port au Prince Haiti. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola, heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican republic and Haiti during the next 24 to 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today.  An air force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning area. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

October 28, 2007 -- Heavy Rains Continue Over Hispaniola.

At 800 AM EDT the government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch for Jamaica.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to port-au-prince.  A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern cuba in the provinces of Granma, Santiago De Cuba, and Guantanamo. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 AM EDT the center of tropical depression sixteen was located near latitude 16.3 north - longitude 72.3 west or about 215 miles southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 160 miles south of port au prince Haiti. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola, heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next 24 to 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning area. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over southeastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. In Jamaica, 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains, particularly in Haiti and the Dominican Republic...could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

October 28, 2007 --  Depression Remains Poorly Organized.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti Dominican Republic border westward to port-au-prince. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti Dominican republic border. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST the center of tropical depression sixteen was located near latitude 16.0 north - longitude 71.7 west or about 185 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.  Heavy rains spreading over Hispaniola... A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti Dominican Republic border westward to port-au-prince.  A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch or warning may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST the center of tropical depression sixteen was located near latitude 16.2 north - longitude 72.1 west or about 215 miles southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 165 miles south of Port au Prince Haiti. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.  Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola,  heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next 24-36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning area. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Hispaniola,with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over southeastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. In Jamaica, 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains...particularly in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 

October 27, 2007 --  The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 7 mph. 

A motion toward northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion could bring the center of the depression near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... And the depression could become a tropical storm later today. Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches. Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the warned area. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Hispaniola, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over Jamaica and southeastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 Persistent Low Pressure Area In The Caribbean Sea Becomes Tropical Depression Sixteen, warnings and watches issued.

At 11 PM AST a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti Dominican republic border westward to port-au-prince.  A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 11 PM AST the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti Dominican republic border. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this depression. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT the center of tropical depression sixteen was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 71.5 west or about 195 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph.  A motion toward northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion could bring the center of the depression near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday. Estimated minimum central pressure is (1003 mb) 29.62 inches. Above normal tides, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the warned area. Tropical depression sixteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over Jamaica and southeastern Cuba...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  Additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 


Dominican Republic: Tropical Storm Noel OCHA Situation Report No. 1

This situation report is based on information received from the National Emergency Commission and member institutions from the Emergency Operations Centre and United Nations agencies in country.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Forty-one people have been killed, 20 missing, 543 rescued and some 51,000 are displaced.
- A five-person UNDAC team is being deployed and a Humanitarian Affairs Officer from the OCHA Regional Office in Panama has arrived today in Santo Domingo.
GENERAL CONTEXT
1. On Friday 28 October, a low pressure system formed over the Central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola Island. Early Sunday morning this low pressure system evolved as a Tropical Depression, and rapidly became a Tropical Storm., threatening directly the Dominican Republic.
2. Heavy and prolonged rainfall hit most of the country, with rivers overflowing their banks and causing major flooding, landslides and the destruction of bridges throughout the Dominican Republic (see attached map).
3. Latest reports indicate that 41 people have been killed, 20 missing, 543 rescued and some 51,000 are displaced. In addition, 41 communities are currently isolated, approximately 12,600 homes have been partially destroyed and 12 bridges and highways affected (see attached list of temporary shelter).
4. Affected Areas: Santo Domingo, Distrito Nacional, San Cristóbal, Peravía, Azua, Barahona, Pedernales, Independencia, Bahoruco, San Juan de la Maguana, Santiago, Puerto Plata, Espaiat, Salcedo, Duarte (especially Bajo Yuna), María Trinidad Sánchez, La Vega, Monte Plata, Moseñor Nouel, Hato Mayor (especially Sabana de la Mar), El Seibo (especially Miches), Sánchez Ramírez, Dajabón, Montecristi, Santiago Rodríguez, La Altagracia and San Pedro de Macorís.
5. According to weather forecasts, intermittent rainfall will continue for the next 48 hours. This, combined with over-saturation of the soil, will likely cause further flooding and landslides, particularly along the Yuna and Jaya rivers. For these reasons, there is the likelihood of an increase in the number of displaced persons, with needs in the areas of shelter, food, medicine and medical assistance.
NATIONAL RESPONSE
6. President Leonel Fernández announced an amount of DOP 100 million (approximately USD 2.9 million) through the Presidential Social Assistance Plan, to assist the population affected by this disaster.
7. The Nacional Emergency Commission (CNE in Spanish) in an extraordinary meeting held today, has taken the following administrative measures: activation of the Emergency Operations Centre (COE in Spanish) at the national, regional and provincial levels, coordination of first deliveries of food rations with CNE and member institutions, meetings with international organizations, suspension of classes nationwide until further notice.
8. The response has been led by the COE, which has been activated at regional, provincial and municipal levels. Personnel as well as rescue teams have been sent to the areas affected, and have carried out preventive evacuations. Emergency and health teams have been also activated, and ambulances have been deployed to affected areas, among other activities.
9. The current situation in the country surpasses local response capacity. The Civil Defense has reported that shelters have surpassed its maximum capacity, with major needs of food (particularly for children and babies), mattresses, sheets, mosquito nets, brooms and hygiene utensils (soap, toilet paper, diapers, tampons, detergent, and garbage bags) and security.
10. There is also a lack of fuel and oil for search and rescue in the field. The Secretary of State of Public Health and Social Assistance (SESPAS in Spanish) has predicted that this could be a 'worst case' scenario for the country.
11. The SESPAS is running against time trying to reach the different provinces and municipalities affected in order to provide medical supplies to already stretched local health facilities.
12. Short-term diseases:

a. Acute Diarrhea due to contamination of potable water supplies.
b. Acute Respiratory Infections due to high humidity and viruses in the atmosphere.
c. Gastroenteritis (due to consumption of contaminated food)
d. Food intoxication

13. Long-term (1-2 weeks) diseases:

a. Dengue in two variables.
b. Pneumonia.
c. Malnutrition

Dominican Republic: Tropical Storm Noel OCHA Situation Report No. 2

This situation report is based on information received from the National Emergency Commission and member institutions from the Emergency Operations Centre and United Nations agencies in country.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Dominican Republic - Latest reports indicate 79 people killed, some 65,000 displaced and 74 communities currently isolated.
- Four members of the UNDAC team arrived in country.
- Noel has also affected Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas. Noel was upgraded to a Category One hurricane late on Thursday before it passed through the Bahamas.
Tropical Storm "Noel"-Regional impact
1. On Friday, 28 October, a low pressure system formed over the Central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola Island. Early Sunday morning this low pressure system evolved as a Tropical Depression, and rapidly became a Tropical Storm, threatening directly the Dominican Republic. Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas have also been affected. Tropical Storm Noel has now been upgraded to a category one hurricane.
2. In Haiti, light rain continues, increasing the risk of landslides. Some 40 deaths have been reported (27 the West, 4 in the South, 4 in South East, 2 in Artibonite, 2 in North and 1 in Nippes), 14 persons are missing, 71 people are injured, 2, 247 families have been affected, and there are approximately 11,400 people in shelters. So far, 883 houses have been destroyed and 3,000 houses damaged. Government and UN response is ongoing. Noel claimed the life of one person in Jamaica. In the Bahamas, rains associated with this storm have now caused severe flooding on the central islands: Long Island, Exuma and Cat Island, Andros and New Providence. Flooding of up to four feet have been reported in some areas and have caused severe damage to crops and livestock on farms.
Dominican Republic- General Situation
3. Heavy and prolonged rainfall hit most of the country, with rivers overflowing their banks and causing major flooding, landslides and the destruction of bridges throughout the Dominican Republic.
4. Latest reports indicate that 79 people have been killed, 43 are missing, 1,522 rescued and some 65,000 are displaced. In addition, 74 communities are currently isolated, approximately 15,338 homes have been partially destroyed and 35 bridges and highways affected. These figures are preliminary as many communities are still cut off, and search and rescue operations as well as assessments continue.
5. The main areas affected are the traditionally vulnerable areas/river basins of Bajo Yuna, Yaque del Sur and Yaque del Norte as well as all other vulnerable locations (hillsides and gullies) in many other parts of the country especially: Santo Domingo, Distrito Nacional, San Cristóbal, Peravía, Azua, Barahona, Pedernales, Independencia, Bahoruco, San Juan de la Maguana, Santiago, Puerto Plata, Espaiat, Salcedo, Duarte (especially Bajo Yuna), María Trinidad Sánchez, La Vega, Monte Plata, Moseñor Nouel, Hato Mayor (especially Sabana de la Mar), El Seibo (especially Miches), Sánchez Ramírez, Dajabón, Montecristi, Santiago Rodríguez, La Altagracia and San Pedro de Macorís.
6. According to weather forecasts, rains are expected to diminish in all the territory. However, heavy downpours are still expected in the South East, South West and in border areas. South western part of the country remains cut off due to a collapsed bridge on main road west of town of Bani. The National Office of Meteorology (ONAMET) maintains flood alerts in 20 provinces. Floods are being reported in more than 100 communities.
7. There is massive loss of standing crops including staples bananas and rice. Forty per cent of the water distribution system is damaged. Health is of particular concern especially water borne disease and mosquito vector disease, such as malaria.
NATIONAL RESPONSE
8. President Leonel Fernández declared the state of national emergency which will allow the quick disbursement of funds to procure emergency relief items and services to respond to the disaster. The Administrative Secretariat of the Presidency was also designated as the responsible entity for all administrative measures for the response, including facilitating the channeling of international assistance. In addition, the Presidency is intending to request a loan of USD 200 million to respond to the emergency.
9. The Government has been carrying out rescue and relief operations but the scale of disaster, continuing heaving rains until last night and the collapse of road communications in many parts of the country is overwhelming. Some 71 shelters are reported to have been opened but conditions are precarious and support limited.
10. The response is led by the Emergency Operations Centre (COE), which has been activated at regional, provincial and municipal levels. The CNE has called a meeting with the Donors with the purpose of formally presenting an overview of the situation and the immediate needs identified by the COE and CNE.
11. The Secretary of Public Health and Social Welfare (SESPAS) has ordered the activation and deployment of an elite unit of the Under-Secretary of Social Welfare to the areas that sustained the most damage as a result of the storm. In addition, SESPAS has established a network of ambulances composed of 18 units, in order to provide assistance to all people who need medical assistance Additionally, SESPAS is providing supplies for water and sanitation and oral rehydration.

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Year 2007 Hurricane Names 
Andrea -- Barry -- Chantal -- Dean -- Erin -- Felix -- Gabrielle -- Humberto -- Ingrid -- Jerry -- Karen -- Lorenzo -- Melissa -- Noel -- Olga -- Pablo -- Rebekah -- Sebastien -- Tanya -- Van -- Wendy