The Disaster Center Covid-19 Diary

--This is record of the events as witnessed an recorded here.
May 4, 2020 --- The President's Son in law declared victory over the corona virus, the President promised that the cost of this victory would only be a 100,000 US of A lives, all of which were not his fault.  The President is also promising that he would oppose any effort to prevent the US Postal Service from going bankrupt in September. 
May 2, 2020 --- On April 18th we forecast between 3  to 3.3 million worldwide confirmed covid-19 cases.  On May 1st the actual number if cases was on the high side of that estimate. We are basing our estimate on between 70 to 85 thousand new reported case a day.  (Right now the United States is responsible for around 40% of the cases.)    We also forecast 5 to 5.9 million worldwide cases on June 1st.  At this time, given the relaxation of closures, it is reasonable to anticipate that the US of A will have around 2.2 million cases by June 1st.
April 21, 2020 --- The Hot Spots Nations -- Percent increase over 267% in total covid-19 cases from April 10th to April 21st, 2020
April 19, 2020 --- Percent Increase by Day in the Number of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases by Day From April 11th to April 19th of the top 25 Nations in Total Cases
April 18, 2020 --- Revising our method of forecasting future cases -- As world wide testing became available the number of daily reported cases increased at a percentage of the prior days report.  At this point, the total confirmed cases are increasing in the range of 70 to 85 thousand a day. By May 1st if this holds true we can expect to have 3 to 3.3 million total cases and by June 1st 5 to 5.9 million worldwide cases.
April 11, 2020 --- Nations with over 200 reported cases with the highest percent increase of confirmed cases from 4/2/20 to 4/11/20 -- The hot spots
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April 10, 2020 -- Top 25 Confirmed Corona Virus Nations Percentage of Daily Cases Increasing --  From 4/1/20 to 4/9/20
Top 25 Confirmed Corona Virus Nations Percentage
of Daily Cases Increasing -- From 4_1_20 to 4_9_20
April 9, 2020 --- Our worldwide March 21st forecast of 6 million cases by May 1st needs to be lowered to 5.4 million and our June 1st forecast from 60 million to 32 million, based on recent trends.
April 8, 2020 --- To mask or not isn't the question.  Without medical providers we all get sick. This is the reason that we were told that masking isn't required or doesn't work. Government looking at the big picture and telling us what it wants us to believe.  Now that the mask issue has been somewhat solved we are being told that masks are a good idea. 
-The President blaming WHO... The reality is that the people who elected the President understood that he was opposed to science.  They were/are willing to place their lives, the lives of their family, and their families fortunes into his hands.  How's that working out for you.......
April 7, 2020 --- The goal of US of A policy is to flatten the peak.  This means to push out the time when people get infected by the virus so that our medical facilities are not overrun.  Under our current approach, without a vaccine to prevent the sickness, as the economy is restarted people who are not now getting infected, because of shelter in place policies, will gradually get infected as they return to the workplace and medical facilities will be able to keep up with the numbers infected.  We have to have a working economy.  Hopefully, those likely to die as a result of the virus we'll be able to work out of their homes and those who get infected will have better treatments for the illness when it comes. 
-We can look at the data and project out what will happen, if we do nothing or if nothing changes.  We need to be able to do this; once we become aware of the consequences, we can work to figure out alternatives.  
April 6, 2020 --- Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports
April 4, 2020 --- Corona Bar Graph 3_25 to 4_3 Percent Increase in Cases
Corona Bar Graph 3_25 to 4_3 Percent Increase in
This chart shows the nations with the highest rate of increase in cases from 3/21/20 to 4/3/20, that have at least 100 reported cases as of 4/3/20.  The percentage of increase in cases is the most important indicator of how effective a nation's efforts in restraining the spread of the virus. For nations in which the number of confirmed cases is small, a high percentage is the surest sign that additional efforts to constrain the spread of the virus need to be undertaken.  The failure of the US of A to have an effective testing system in place to identify the early spread of the virus and restrain its spread will ultimately cost US of A tax payers and economy trillions in losses and costs.
April 3, 2020 --- Top Ten Countries Total Confirmed Cases by Date: Based on WHO Data
Top Ten Countries Totla Confirmed Cases
April 2, 2020 --- Today worldwide cases should top one million and Spain should top Italy in number of cases to rank number two.
April 1, 2020 --- Chart of Corona Virus Cases by Nation and Day Based on WHO's Situation Reports
Chart of Corna virus
cases by nation and day
March 29, 2020 --- For every day since January 21st we have been placing WHO's reports of confirmed cases COVID-19 into a spreadsheet.  On the 21st of January there were 280 cases reported. Now, 68 days later WHO is reporting 571,547 cases.  John Hopkins compiles its reports from a variety of sources has a more up to date number and is reporting 684,652 cases at 10:40 EST.  What we've been doing is looking at this disaster unfold everyday and seeing the daily increase in cases for every nation around to world.  The disaster is not over anywhere and is getting worse in most places.  We are one world facing a common problem.  We need to face it together.  Please consider donating to Doctors Without Borders.
March 27, 2020 --- It appears that our projection of March 21st that number of cases would reach 600,000 by April 1st is going to be fulfilled today or tomorrow.  The projection for May 1st of six million cases is on track. The global failure of leadership to embrace what science and technology have to offer us in fighting the virus has led us into a global disaster that did not have to be as severe as it has and will become.  We elected public officials who besmirched what science has to tell us and who aren't prepared to listen still.. 
March 26, 2020 --- Today the number of confirmed world wide cases will reach 500,000.  It appears that today or tomorrow the US of A will overtake China and Italy to become the number one country for confirmed Corona Virus cases.  Update: US of A -- Number One.
March 25, 2020 --- Today over 55,000 cases have been reported in the US of A.
March 24, 2020 --- This mornings US of A total confirmed cases reached 46,548 according to John Hopkin's Coronavirus COVID-19 web site.  Today the world total will reach 400,000 cases.
March 21, 2020 --- According to Data from WHO the rate of the spread of the virus this last week is around 8% of existing cases per day. At this rate there will be world wide cases of around 600,000 cases by April 1st, and 6 million by May 1st, and over 60 million by June 1st. This is the first estimate we have any faith in.   Intelligence reports leaked to the media indicate that POTUS was warned about the virus in January and February.  POTUS did not act on these warnings because he does not believe in intelligence. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced indicating that Congressional representatives warned about the threat and its consequences, immediately acted by selling their stocks before the stock market fell.  Over 20,000 US of A cases have been reported as of today.
March 19, 2020 world wide reported cases will reach a quarter of a million and US of A cases were reported to be over 10,000.  The US of A policy leading us to this point was a disaster.  If you put icing on crap it's still going to taste like..... What matters now is what we do going forward.  This is a global disaster.  The worst effects are yet to come.  What we do now as one people occupying a speck in a vast universe is going to define who and what we are for generations.  Right now, I'm not sure.....
March 18, 2020 -- US of A reported cases at 7,663 at noon EST.
March 17, 2020 -- This evening worldwide cases should top 200,000.   This morning the number of US of A reported cases topped 5,000.  To put this into perspective this is 1 in 66,200 people in the US of A.
March 16, 2020 --- Expect the case count to move up rapidly as testing becomes widely available.  This morning at 7 AM the US of A case total is being reported as 3,774. Today the cases reported outside of China should be more than the number of cases inside China.
March 15, 2020 --- At the Disaster Center we started to panic about the corona virus on February 2nd. This last week the people of the United States caught up with us. Last Sunday we wrote that if the number of reported cases increases  by 15% a day the total number of cases today would be 1,162.  This morning at 7 AM EST the number of reported cases is 2,952.    Last week we also forecast if the virus increased at 15% per day to June 5th that around one hundred million people would have been infected by that date.  In spite of this, today we saying that the time for panic is over.  We won't be able to beat the virus until a vaccine is developed, but eventually we'll be able to limit the spread of the virus and return to normal. That is going to happen because we are now focused on the reality that we need get together and fight a common enemy.  It's going to take time and cost money.  The Chinese fought it back by adopting measures that are difficult for any people to accept.  On March 5, we wrote about how the China did it.  Please be mindful of people who are especially vulnerable.
March 13, 2020 --- In the last week the daily increase in reported cases against all cases is 5%. When we exclude China the rate is 15%.  When we just look at the United States due to the lack of systematic testing the daily rate of increase is over 30%. This is due to testing just now becoming available over two months after the outbreak was identified
March 12, 2020 --- What government does matters.  At some point we will be able to judge what it saying against the number of lives lost.  This morning the the number cases reported at 3 AM in the US of A is 1,312.
March 11, 2020 --- This morning number of US of A cases is reported to be 1,135. See March 8, 2020 We have to adopt, as a national priority, a containment policy whatever the costs.  We believe that the United States will eventually adopt a containment policy.  The cost of doing so later will result in more deaths and greater costs.
March 10, 2020 --- This morning at 6AM EST John Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 website indicated that 755 cases had been identified in the US of A.  The problem that was experienced in China, which is now being experienced in Italy, is that without controlling the movement of people it is impossible to control the spread of the virus.  If the movement of the people is not controlled medical facilities to treat them will be overrun.  This is going to happen everywhere there is no policy to control movement.  At some point, the business of a nation has to mostly shut down.
The U.S. Surgeon General said, "we’re trying to help people understand how to mitigate the impact of disease spread."  Does anyone know what this means?  We're not going to stop the spread of the virus, but we are going to mitigate the impact?  
March 9, 2020 --- A containment policy is a system in place to contain the spread of the virus by identifying individuals who have the virus and those whom they have exposed and to isolate or contain them, either voluntarily or by force.  The United States never had a containment policy because until recently it did not have the means available to test large numbers of people.  Recently, the US announced that it was moving to mitigation from a containment policy that never existed.  China implemented a containment policy that has brought down the spread of the virus.  The US has never had and is not now pursuing a containment policy. At 4AM John Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 website indicated that 554 cases had been reported in the US of A.
March 8, 2020 -- The US of A has announced that it is giving up on containment as a strategy.  It will contain individuals who have been been exposed, but not going to take the kind of proactive responses that the Chinese did. At one end, if the spread of the virus were not contained in any way, it is reasonable to forecast that millions of people in the United States would die.  If a vaccine were put on the market in the near future then those millions won't die.  It may be that we have to wait a year before a vaccine is available.  Unfortunately, we cannot predict the rate of the spread the virus with any certainty, because testing in the US of A has not been available, because of CDC screw ups.  We are not going to have a reasonable idea of how many people in the US of A have been infected for awhile.  For us to be able to forecast the daily rate of increase is probably going to take a month.  This morning John Hopkins website is reporting that 437 people have been diagnosed with the virus in the US of A. If  the number of reported daily cases increases by 15% a day, by next Sunday the number of reported cases will be 1,162 and by June 5, 2020 over 100 million.     
March 7,2020 --- Compared to the total number of existing cases, the daily rate of increase inside China is 0.025%.  The rate of increased cases out side China is 20%.
The situation is the first global catastrophe of the digital age.
We are confronting an age-old problem with resources, awareness, and tools that have not existed for like plagues in the history of the humanity.  How every nation responds will have effects on every other nation.  What is needed is the global coordination of Emergency Support Functions, in an organizational structure to provide support, resources, program implementation, and services that are needed to save lives, to keep the engines of our economies moving, providing a global framework so that the people who inhabit the same small globe, will be able to minimize the negative effects to their economies, and to reduce the number of people who will become ill and die.
March 5, 2020 ---
How did the government of China do it?
Most people in China were required to use an app that associated them with a risk factor, red, yellow or green.  Where you could go depended on the risk factor associated with your identity.  At check points monitored by police, people’s temperature and identities are scanned from their phones.  Check points were set up everywhere.  Highway traffic was stopped.  Everyone moving from one point to another had their temperature taken.
By tracking people’s movements, if someone was exposed to a person who later came down with the virus, people who rode the same train, frequented the same area, and lived at the same address they could be identified and assigned a code.  Massive amounts of data were collected and every effort made to track the contacts of the 70,000 cases.
It has been reported that individuals, who were identified by neighbors or associates as being ill, were rounded up by authorities for testing. 
The government of China made sure that social media provided accurate information to users, that everyone was taught how hands should be washed, how to wear masks, not to shake hands, what were the symptoms of the corona virus.  Ninety percent of those with the virus had fever, seventy percent had dry coughs, thirty percent had malaise, and trouble breathing, only four percent have runny noses.  If you suspected you had the virus you went to a clinic where you would be asked: who have you had contact with, what was your travel and medical history. Then a CT scan would be performed to look for ground-glass opacities, which are lung abnormalities.   If you were still a suspect case, they would then do a swab test and you would wait four hours for the results to be processed.
If a person tested positive, with mild symptoms, (80 percent of all cases) a fever, cough, maybe even pneumonia, you go to an isolation center, set up in gymnasiums and stadiums.  The time between a person noting symptoms and the time they were hospitalized went from 15 days, when the virus first appeared, to two days.  If the symptoms were severe: needing oxygen or a ventilator or critical: other illnesses or over age 65, you’d go straight to hospital.
The best hospitals were designated just for severe and critical cases of the corona virus. Elective surgeries were postponed, other patients moved. Some hospitals were designated just for routine care.  The government made it clear: testing is free and when your insurance ended, the state picked up everything.
The response among the people was: we’ve got to help.  Other provinces sent 40,000 medical workers to Wuhan, many volunteered.  The fifteen million people of Wuhan couldn’t go out.  Food ordered online was delivered.
The spread of the virus has been beaten back in China, but is not yet beaten.  The fight goes on and has moved to different fields of battle, where how governments and people come together will determine the outcome.
March 4, 2020 --- Little time to work on graphics, unfortunately...
Worldwide cases cumulative to March 1st
March 3, 2020 --- Let's take a look again at the daily rate of increase since February 15th to March 1st.  In China the rate of increase is reported to be 1.2% and everywhere else is 18.0%. A problem with the data is that testing is taking place in spurts and political pressure is being brought to report fewer cases.  The result of these actions is that the best we can do at this point is to make a poorly educated guess as to the actual number of cases that are other there.  The best estimate we can give is that there are at least 200,000 cases world wide, since the Chinese government is not reporting test results that are positive, when those testing positive do not exhibit symptoms.  The reality is that there will be economic shocks yet to be felt as a result of the spread of the virus.  In the United States control of the release of information related to the virus has been taken over by an elected official and the President has promised that their is nothing to be concerned about.  In spite of the actions of our elected officials, our advice is not to panic.  Develop the habits that will protect you and your family members from the virus.
March 2, 2020 --- Still working on the charts.... Report that around a million corona virus tests will have been conducted by this weekend.  Expect many more reports in the US in the near future.  FEMA considering a national emergency declaration.
March 1, 2020  -- When this was blog was started, projections of the number of cases there would be on March 1st were made.  The daily total number of actual cases has been recorded since February 2nd, when WHO started to compile daily case numbers.  The reason that this was done was to show that the potential for the spread of the virus was extreme and that a danger existed that in its present form did not appear to be as much of a concern as it should be.  Hopefully, tomorrow there will be time for me to work with this information to create some graphics that should be interesting.
February 28, 2020 --- Governments are taking control over information about what's happening with the spread of the corona virus around the world.   What's happening with the virus has political consequences.  The failure of the health care system in the United States to provide care to the poor, may be the reason billionaires die.  The economic consequences of shuttered factories and blocked borders may bring about shortages, a global economic depression, or the downfall of those same governments.  Let us undertake the actions that we can to limit its spread.  These actions, at this time, involve local planning for an event we pray will not take place.  Let us pray and plan. 
February 26, 2020 --- We are presented with an old world problem in the modern age.   We need to use the technology of this age to mitigate the spread of the virus.  Let's say that China is actually reducing the spread of the virus.  How are they doing this?  Any hole in the net spread around those contracting the virus is a threat to all of us.  Today we found out that the CDC had sent out test kits for the virus that didn't work.  What is being done to help those countries where the virus is spreading or might be spreading, but need help?  We have to set aside political animosities and join in a common fight against the spread of the virus.
February 24, 2020 --- Today China with 77,262 reported confirmed cases, reported an increase of 220 cases.  While the rest of the world with 2,065 confirmed cases reported an increase of 297 cases.
February 22, 2020 --- Today international reports, not including China, indicated a 17% increase in cases.  China is reporting a 1% increase in cases today...... 
February 21, 2020 --- It appears that pressure in China is minimizing the number of reported cases.  The desire to avoid the economic consequences of the spread of the virus appears to be facilitating its spread.  The average rate of daily increase internationally for the last 10 days is 12%.  for the last seven days China is reporting a 2.4% rate increase of cases.
February 14, 2020 --- We removed our post from yesterday because the information was not correct.  There are currently two estimates of cases WHO's reporting 50,580  these are laboratory confirmed cases and John Hopkins which is reporting 69,032 confirmed cases.  Basically, we don't have a reliable way to forecast the rate of future cases, but if we take the number of reported cases on February 1st, which was 11,953, calculate the rate of increase by number of cases reported by WHO and by John Hopkins, we get a daily rate of increase of 10.8% for WHO and 13.4% for Hopkins.  If we run these numbers out to March 1st we get 259,2200 cases and 519,838 cases.  If we run these numbers out to April 1st we get 6,228,770 cases and 25,637,357 cases.  Do you get the idea of where this is going?
February 12, 2020 --- We need to combine our efforts, to unite every person, state, nation in the effort to fight the spread of the virus.  If we assemble and combine our efforts the difference in the outcome may well be millions of lives and to mitigate the affects upon the world economy.  Now is the time for humanity to begin to understand that we are all on the same boat.
February 13, 2020 --- Today some regions of China came out with revised figures, which put the existing number of reported cases significantly higher.  What's been missing from the reports, which we've seen, is an outpouring of the world's support for the Chinese people.  Please consider donating
February 12, 2020 --- Today it was reported that China has altered the way that cases of Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) are reported.  According to reports, cases that test positive, but lack symptoms have been removed from cases previously reported and are no longer being reported.  This change in policy has occurred at the same time that the reported rates declined.  We will not update the rates reported today.
February 11, 2020 --- The global rate of increase today is reported at 6%. The rate of increase outside of China was 24%.
February 10, 2020 --- The rate of increase today remains at 8%. Rate of increase in deaths is still 12%. 
February 9, 2020 --- The rate of increase of cases today is reported to be 8%.  The reported daily rate of increase in deaths is 12%.
February 8, 2020 --- The rate of increase of reported cases today is 11%.  The daily rate of the increase in deaths is 14%.
February 7, 2020 --- The rate of death is an issue because the information we are getting doesn't appear to add up.  Today John Hopkins is reporting that 638 have died and 1,741 have recovered. When we look at the details of the report, we see that in Hubei, where the virus first appeared, that 856 recovered and 618 died.   That would mean that everywhere else 20 died and 895 recovered.  Given the disparity of these figures it is impossible to estimate the percentage of people who will die as a result of infection by the virus.  The rate of increase was 15% today.
February 6, 2020 --- The rate of increase of cases today is down to 15% per day.  Today the rate of increase in China was 16%. 
February 5, 2020 --- The rate of increase of cases today is back up to 19% per day.  Outside China the rate of increase was 20%.  We'll keep watching and reporting the rate of daily increase.
February 4, 2020 --- There has been a decline in the rate of increase of cases per day the past two days the rate has dropped to 16%. At this rate on the 1st of March there would be almost a million cases (601 in the United States) and at the end of March over 31 million (over 44,000 in the United States) .
February 3, 2020 --- We'll update this page when we come across information or a resource that may be of interest.  Today its :
A map of global cases of 2019-nCoV  by Johns Hopkins CSSE.     
Lessons Learned from the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota    
Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic
February 2, 2020 --- Based on the World Health Organization's situation reports, we now are calculating that the rate of the increase of cases of the Novel Coronavirus today is around 21.5% per day.  This is down substantially from the rate last week.
The spread rate is important for estimating the probable number of cases.  If the 21.5% daily rate continues, we can estimate that by March 1st, globally there will be over 3 million people who will be identified as being or having been infected by the virus. If the number now recorded as being dead expands at the same rate, by March 1st, over 70,000 people will have died as a result of the virus. If the rate of the virus' spread continues to the end of March, globally the number infected would reach over a billion and the deaths into the tens of millions.  The data for the United States is very small, projections are uncertain.  If the spread rate is 21.5% per day in the United States, the number infected, by the beginning of March will be around 2,000 and by the end of March around a half million.  Since no one has died from the virus in United States and the standard of care that will be provided is uncertain, we can not predict the percentage infected who will die.  All these projections are just that.  What we do going forward will determine whether they are a future we avoided, by our actions, if they are correct, or underestimations.