Disaster Center Covid-19 Diary
is record of the events as witnessed an recorded here.
May 4, 2020 --- The President's Son in law declared victory
corona virus, the President promised that the cost of this victory
would only be a 100,000 US of A lives, all of which were not his
fault. The President is also promising that he would oppose
any effort to prevent the US Postal Service from going bankrupt in
May 2, 2020 --- On April 18th we forecast between 3 to 3.3
million worldwide confirmed covid-19 cases. On May 1st the
actual number if cases was on the high side of that estimate. We are
basing our estimate on between 70 to 85 thousand new reported case a
day. (Right now the United States is responsible for around
40% of the cases.) We also forecast 5 to 5.9
million worldwide cases on June 1st. At this time, given the
relaxation of closures, it is reasonable to anticipate that the US of A
will have around 2.2 million cases by June 1st.
April 21, 2020 --- The
Hot Spots Nations -- Percent increase over 267% in total covid-19 cases
from April 10th to April 21st, 2020
April 19, 2020 --- Percent
Increase by Day in the Number of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases by Day From
April 11th to April 19th of the top 25 Nations in Total Cases
April 18, 2020 --- Revising our method of forecasting future cases --
As world wide testing became available the number of daily reported
cases increased at a percentage of the prior days report. At
this point, the total confirmed cases are increasing in the range of 70
to 85 thousand a day. By May 1st if this holds true we can expect to
have 3 to 3.3 million total cases and by June 1st 5 to 5.9 million
April 11, 2020 --- Nations
with over 200 reported cases with the highest percent increase of
confirmed cases from 4/2/20 to 4/11/20 -- The hot spots
April 10, 2020 -- Top
25 Confirmed Corona Virus Nations Percentage of Daily Cases Increasing
-- From 4/1/20 to 4/9/20
April 9, 2020 --- Our worldwide March 21st forecast of 6 million cases
by May 1st needs to be lowered to 5.4 million and our June 1st forecast
from 60 million to 32 million, based on recent trends.
April 8, 2020 --- To mask or not isn't the question. Without
medical providers we all get sick. This is the reason that we were told
that masking isn't required or doesn't work. Government looking at the
big picture and telling us what it wants us to believe. Now
that the mask issue has been somewhat solved we are being told that
masks are a good idea.
-The President blaming WHO... The reality is that the people who
elected the President understood that he was opposed to
science. They were/are willing to place their lives, the
lives of their family, and their families fortunes into his
hands. How's that working out for you.......
April 7, 2020 --- The goal of US of A policy is to flatten the
peak. This means to push out the time when people get
infected by the virus so that our medical facilities are not
overrun. Under our current approach, without a vaccine to
prevent the sickness, as the economy is restarted people who are not
now getting infected, because of shelter in place policies, will
gradually get infected as they return to the workplace and medical
facilities will be able to keep up with the numbers infected.
We have to have a working economy. Hopefully, those likely to
die as a result of the virus we'll be able to work out of their homes
and those who get infected will have better treatments for the illness
when it comes.
-We can look at the data and project out what will happen, if we do
nothing or if nothing changes. We need to be able to do this;
once we become aware of the consequences, we can work to figure out
April 6, 2020 --- Google
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports
April 4, 2020 --- Corona Bar Graph 3_25 to 4_3 Percent Increase in
This chart shows the nations with the highest rate of increase in cases
from 3/21/20 to 4/3/20, that have at least 100 reported cases as of
4/3/20. The percentage of increase in cases is the most
important indicator of how effective a nation's efforts in restraining
the spread of the virus. For nations in which the number of confirmed
cases is small, a high percentage is the surest sign that additional
efforts to constrain the spread of the virus need to be
undertaken. The failure of the US of A to have an effective
testing system in place to identify the early spread of the virus and
restrain its spread will ultimately cost US of A tax payers and economy
trillions in losses and costs.
April 3, 2020 --- Top Ten Countries Total Confirmed Cases by Date:
Based on WHO Data
April 2, 2020 --- Today worldwide cases should top one million and
Spain should top Italy in number of cases to rank number two.
April 1, 2020 --- Chart
of Corona Virus Cases by Nation and Day Based on WHO's Situation Reports
March 29, 2020 --- For every day since January 21st we have been
reports of confirmed cases
COVID-19 into a spreadsheet.
On the 21st of January there were 280 cases reported. Now, 68 days
later WHO is reporting 571,547 cases. John
Hopkins compiles its reports
from a variety of sources has a more up to date number and is reporting
684,652 cases at 10:40 EST. What we've been doing is looking
at this disaster unfold everyday and seeing the daily increase in cases
for every nation around to world. The disaster is not over
anywhere and is getting worse in most places. We are one
world facing a common problem. We need to face it
together. Please consider donating to Doctors
March 27, 2020 --- It appears that our projection of March 21st that
number of cases would reach 600,000 by April 1st is going to be
fulfilled today or tomorrow. The projection for May 1st of
six million cases is on track. The global failure of leadership to
embrace what science and technology have to offer us in fighting the
virus has led us into a global disaster that did not have to be as
severe as it has and will become. We elected public officials
who besmirched what science has to tell us and who aren't prepared to
March 26, 2020 --- Today the number of confirmed world wide cases will
reach 500,000. It appears that today or tomorrow the US of A
will overtake China and Italy to become the number one country for
confirmed Corona Virus cases. Update: US of A -- Number One.
March 25, 2020 --- Today over 55,000 cases have been reported in the US
March 24, 2020 --- This mornings US of A total confirmed cases reached
46,548 according to John
Hopkin's Coronavirus COVID-19 web site.
Today the world total will reach 400,000 cases.
March 21, 2020 --- According to Data from WHO
the rate of the spread of the virus this last week is around 8% of
existing cases per day. At this rate there will be world wide cases of
around 600,000 cases by April 1st, and 6 million by May 1st, and over
60 million by June 1st. This is the first estimate we have any faith
in. Intelligence reports leaked to the media indicate that
POTUS was warned about the virus in January and February.
POTUS did not act on these warnings because he does not believe in
intelligence. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced indicating that
Congressional representatives warned about the threat and its
consequences, immediately acted by selling their stocks before the
stock market fell. Over 20,000 US of A cases have been
reported as of today.
March 19, 2020 world wide reported cases will reach a quarter of a
million and US of A cases were reported to be over 10,000.
The US of A policy leading us to this point was a disaster.
If you put icing on crap it's still going to taste like..... What
matters now is what we do going forward. This is a global
disaster. The worst effects are yet to come. What
we do now as one people occupying a speck in a vast universe is going
to define who and what we are for generations. Right now, I'm
March 18, 2020 -- US of A reported cases at 7,663 at noon EST.
March 17, 2020 -- This evening worldwide cases should top 200,000.
This morning the number of US of A reported cases topped
5,000. To put this into perspective this is 1 in 66,200
people in the US of A.
March 16, 2020 --- Expect the case count to move up rapidly as testing
becomes widely available. This morning at 7 AM the US of A
case total is being reported as 3,774. Today the cases reported outside
of China should be more than the number of cases inside China.
March 15, 2020 --- At the Disaster Center we started to panic about the
corona virus on February 2nd. This last week the people of the United
States caught up with us. Last Sunday we wrote that if the number of
reported cases increases by 15% a day the total number of
cases today would be 1,162. This morning at 7 AM EST the
number of reported cases is 2,952. Last week we
also forecast if the virus increased at 15% per day to June 5th that
around one hundred million people would have been infected by that
date. In spite of this, today we saying that the time for
panic is over. We won't be able to beat the virus until a
vaccine is developed, but eventually we'll be able to limit the spread
of the virus and return to normal. That is going to happen because we
are now focused on the reality that we need get together and fight a
common enemy. It's going to take time and cost
money. The Chinese fought it back by adopting measures that
are difficult for any people to accept. On March 5, we wrote
about how the China did it. Please be mindful of people who
are especially vulnerable.
March 13, 2020 --- In the last week the daily increase in reported
cases against all cases is 5%. When we exclude China the rate is
15%. When we just look at the United States due to the lack
of systematic testing the daily rate of increase is over 30%. This is
due to testing just now becoming available over two months after the
outbreak was identified
March 12, 2020 --- What government does matters. At some
point we will be able to judge what it saying against the number of
lives lost. This morning the the number cases reported at 3
AM in the US of A is 1,312.
March 11, 2020 --- This morning number of US of A cases is reported to
be 1,135. See March 8, 2020
We have to adopt, as a national priority, a containment policy whatever
the costs. We believe that the United States will eventually
adopt a containment policy. The cost of doing so later will
result in more deaths and greater costs.
March 10, 2020 --- This morning at 6AM EST John
Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 website
indicated that 755 cases had been identified in the US of A.
The problem that was experienced in China, which is now being
experienced in Italy, is that without controlling the movement of
people it is impossible to control the spread of the virus.
If the movement of the people is not controlled medical facilities to
treat them will be overrun. This is going to happen
everywhere there is no policy to control movement. At some
point, the business of a nation has to mostly shut down.
The U.S. Surgeon General said, "we’re trying to help people
understand how to mitigate the impact of disease spread."
Does anyone know what this means? We're not going to stop the
spread of the virus, but we are going to mitigate the impact?
March 9, 2020 --- A containment policy is a system in place to contain
the spread of the virus by identifying individuals who have the virus
and those whom they have exposed and to isolate or contain them, either
voluntarily or by force. The United States never had a
containment policy because until recently it did not have the means
available to test large numbers of people. Recently, the US
announced that it was moving to mitigation from a containment policy
that never existed. China implemented a containment policy
that has brought down the spread of the virus. The US has
never had and is not now pursuing a containment policy. At 4AM John
Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 website indicated that 554 cases had been
reported in the US of A.
March 8, 2020 -- The US of A has announced that it is giving up on
containment as a strategy. It will contain individuals who
have been been exposed, but not going to take the kind of proactive
responses that the Chinese did. At one end, if the spread of the virus
were not contained in any way, it is reasonable to forecast that
millions of people in the United States would die. If a
vaccine were put on the market in the near future then those millions
won't die. It may be that we have to wait a year before a
vaccine is available. Unfortunately, we cannot predict the
rate of the spread the virus with any certainty, because testing in the
US of A has not been available, because of CDC screw ups. We
are not going to have a reasonable idea of how many people in the US of
A have been infected for awhile. For us to be able to
forecast the daily rate of increase is probably going to take a
month. This morning John
Hopkins website is reporting
that 437 people have been diagnosed with the virus in the US of A.
If the number of reported daily cases increases by 15% a day,
by next Sunday the number of reported cases will be 1,162 and by June
5, 2020 over 100 million.
March 7,2020 --- Compared to the total number of existing cases, the
daily rate of increase inside China is 0.025%. The rate of
increased cases out side China is 20%.
The situation is the first global catastrophe of the digital age.
We are confronting an age-old problem with resources, awareness, and
tools that have not existed for like plagues in the history of the
humanity. How every nation responds will have effects on
every other nation. What is needed is the global coordination
of Emergency Support Functions, in an organizational structure to
provide support, resources, program implementation, and services that
are needed to save lives, to keep the engines of our economies moving,
providing a global framework so that the people who inhabit the same
small globe, will be able to minimize the negative effects to their
economies, and to reduce the number of people who will become ill and
March 5, 2020 ---
How did the government of China do it?
Most people in China were required to use an app that associated them
with a risk factor, red, yellow or green. Where you could go
depended on the risk factor associated with your identity. At
check points monitored by police, people’s temperature and
identities are scanned from their phones. Check points were
set up everywhere. Highway traffic was stopped.
Everyone moving from one point to another had their temperature taken.
By tracking people’s movements, if someone was exposed to a
person who later came down with the virus, people who rode the same
train, frequented the same area, and lived at the same address they
could be identified and assigned a code. Massive amounts of
data were collected and every effort made to track the contacts of the
It has been reported that individuals, who were identified by neighbors
or associates as being ill, were rounded up by authorities for
The government of China made sure that social media provided accurate
information to users, that everyone was taught how hands should be
washed, how to wear masks, not to shake hands, what were the symptoms
of the corona virus. Ninety percent of those with the virus
had fever, seventy percent had dry coughs, thirty percent had malaise,
and trouble breathing, only four percent have runny noses. If
you suspected you had the virus you went to a clinic where you would be
asked: who have you had contact with, what was your travel and medical
history. Then a CT scan would be performed to look for ground-glass
opacities, which are lung abnormalities. If you
were still a suspect case, they would then do a swab test and you would
wait four hours for the results to be processed.
If a person tested positive, with mild symptoms, (80 percent of all
cases) a fever, cough, maybe even pneumonia, you go to an isolation
center, set up in gymnasiums and stadiums. The time between a
person noting symptoms and the time they were hospitalized went from 15
days, when the virus first appeared, to two days. If the
symptoms were severe: needing oxygen or a ventilator or critical: other
illnesses or over age 65, you’d go straight to hospital.
The best hospitals were designated just for severe and critical cases
of the corona virus. Elective surgeries were postponed, other patients
moved. Some hospitals were designated just for routine care.
The government made it clear: testing is free and when your insurance
ended, the state picked up everything.
The response among the people was: we’ve got to
help. Other provinces sent 40,000 medical workers to Wuhan,
many volunteered. The fifteen million people of Wuhan
couldn’t go out. Food ordered online was delivered.
The spread of the virus has been beaten back in China, but is not yet
beaten. The fight goes on and has moved to different fields
of battle, where how governments and people come together will
determine the outcome.
March 4, 2020 --- Little time to work on graphics, unfortunately...
March 3, 2020 --- Let's take a look again at the daily rate of increase
since February 15th to March 1st. In China the rate of
increase is reported to be 1.2% and everywhere else is 18.0%. A problem
with the data is that testing is taking place in spurts and political
pressure is being brought to report fewer cases. The result
of these actions is that the best we can do at this point is to make a
poorly educated guess as to the actual number of cases that are other
there. The best estimate we can give is that there are at
least 200,000 cases world wide, since the Chinese government is not
reporting test results that are positive, when those testing positive
do not exhibit symptoms. The reality is that there will be
economic shocks yet to be felt as a result of the spread of the
virus. In the United States control of the release of
information related to the virus has been taken over by an elected
official and the President has promised that their is nothing to be
concerned about. In spite of the actions of our elected
officials, our advice is not to panic. Develop the habits
that will protect you and your family members from the virus.
March 2, 2020 --- Still working on the charts.... Report that around a
million corona virus tests will have been conducted by this
weekend. Expect many more reports in the US in the near
future. FEMA considering a national emergency declaration.
March 1, 2020 -- When this was blog was started, projections
of the number of cases there would be on March 1st were made.
The daily total number of actual cases has been recorded since February
2nd, when WHO started to compile daily case numbers. The
reason that this was done was to show that the potential for the spread
of the virus was extreme and that a danger existed that in its present
form did not appear to be as much of a concern as it should
be. Hopefully, tomorrow there will be time for me to work
with this information to create some graphics that should be
February 28, 2020 --- Governments are taking control over information
about what's happening with the spread of the corona virus around the
world. What's happening with the virus has
political consequences. The failure of the health care system
in the United States to provide care to the poor, may be the reason
billionaires die. The economic consequences of shuttered
factories and blocked borders may bring about shortages, a global
economic depression, or the downfall of those same
governments. Let us undertake the actions that we can to
limit its spread. These actions, at this time, involve local
planning for an event we pray will not take place. Let us
pray and plan.
February 26, 2020 --- We are presented with an old world problem in the
modern age. We need to use the technology of this age to
mitigate the spread of the virus. Let's say that China is
actually reducing the spread of the virus. How are they doing
this? Any hole in the net spread around those contracting the
virus is a threat to all of us. Today we found out that the
CDC had sent out test kits for the virus that didn't work.
What is being done to help those countries where the virus is spreading
or might be spreading, but need help? We have to set aside
political animosities and join in a common fight against the spread of
February 24, 2020 --- Today China with 77,262 reported confirmed cases,
reported an increase of 220 cases. While the rest of the
world with 2,065 confirmed cases reported an increase of 297 cases.
February 22, 2020 --- Today international reports, not including China,
indicated a 17% increase in cases. China is reporting a 1%
increase in cases today......
February 21, 2020 --- It appears that pressure in China is minimizing
the number of reported cases. The desire to avoid the
economic consequences of the spread of the virus appears to be
facilitating its spread. The average rate of daily increase
internationally for the last 10 days is 12%. for the last
seven days China is reporting a 2.4% rate increase of cases.
February 14, 2020 --- We removed our post from yesterday because the
information was not correct. There are currently two
estimates of cases WHO's
reporting 50,580 these
are laboratory confirmed cases and John
Hopkins which is reporting 69,032
confirmed cases. Basically, we don't have a reliable way to
forecast the rate of future cases, but if we take the number of
reported cases on February 1st, which was 11,953, calculate the rate of
increase by number of cases reported by WHO and by John Hopkins, we get
a daily rate of increase of 10.8% for WHO and 13.4% for
Hopkins. If we run these numbers out to March 1st we get
259,2200 cases and 519,838 cases. If we run these numbers out
to April 1st we get 6,228,770 cases and 25,637,357 cases. Do
you get the idea of where this is going?
February 12, 2020 --- We need to combine our efforts, to unite every
person, state, nation in the effort to fight the spread of the
virus. If we assemble and combine our efforts the difference
in the outcome may well be millions of lives and to mitigate the
affects upon the world economy. Now is the time for humanity
to begin to understand that we are all on the same boat.
February 13, 2020 --- Today some regions of China came out with revised
figures, which put the existing number of reported cases significantly
higher. What's been missing from the reports, which we've
seen, is an outpouring of the world's support for the Chinese
people. Please consider donating
February 12, 2020 --- Today it was reported that China has altered the
way that cases of Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) are reported.
According to reports, cases that test positive, but lack symptoms have
been removed from cases previously reported and are no longer being
reported. This change in policy has occurred at the same time
that the reported rates declined. We will not update the
rates reported today.
February 11, 2020 --- The global rate of increase today is reported at
6%. The rate of increase outside of China was 24%.
February 10, 2020 --- The rate of increase today remains at 8%. Rate of
increase in deaths is still 12%.
February 9, 2020 --- The rate of increase of cases today is reported to
be 8%. The reported daily rate of increase in deaths is 12%.
February 8, 2020 --- The rate of increase of reported cases today is
11%. The daily rate of the increase in deaths is 14%.
February 7, 2020 --- The rate of death is an issue because the
information we are getting doesn't appear to add up. Today
John Hopkins is reporting that 638 have died and 1,741 have recovered.
When we look at the details of the report, we see that in Hubei, where
the virus first appeared, that 856 recovered and 618
died. That would mean that everywhere else 20 died
and 895 recovered. Given the disparity of these figures it is
impossible to estimate the percentage of people who will die as a
result of infection by the virus. The rate of increase was
February 6, 2020 --- The rate of increase of cases today is down to 15%
per day. Today the rate of increase in China was
February 5, 2020 --- The rate of increase of cases today is back up to
19% per day. Outside China the rate of increase was
20%. We'll keep watching and reporting the rate of daily
February 4, 2020 --- There has been a decline in the rate of increase
of cases per day the past two days the rate has dropped to 16%. At this
rate on the 1st of March there would be almost a million cases (601 in
the United States) and at the end of March over 31 million (over 44,000
in the United States) .
February 3, 2020 --- We'll update this page when we come across
information or a resource that may be of interest. Today its :
A map of global
cases of 2019-nCoV by
Johns Hopkins CSSE.
Learned from the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Minneapolis
and St. Paul, Minnesota
Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Implications for a Modern-day
February 2, 2020 --- Based on the World
Health Organization's situation reports,
we now are calculating that the rate of the increase of cases of the
Novel Coronavirus today is around 21.5% per day. This is down
substantially from the rate last week.
The spread rate is important for estimating the probable number of
cases. If the 21.5% daily rate continues, we can estimate
that by March 1st, globally there will be over 3 million people who
will be identified as being or having been infected by the virus. If
the number now recorded as being dead expands at the same rate, by
March 1st, over 70,000 people will have died as a result of the virus.
If the rate of the virus' spread continues to the end of March,
globally the number infected would reach over a billion and the deaths
into the tens of millions. The data for the United States is
very small, projections are uncertain. If the spread rate is
21.5% per day in the United States, the number infected, by the
beginning of March will be around 2,000 and by the end of March around
a half million. Since no one has died from the virus in
United States and the standard of care that will be provided is
uncertain, we can not predict the percentage infected who will
die. All these projections are just that. What we
do going forward will determine whether they are a future we avoided,
by our actions, if they are correct, or underestimations.